NBA cup semifinals any thoughts

[btcinfo891]

Anyone know what happened to Victor Wembanyama's injury status? Saw conflicting reports about whether he's playing or not

Spurs listed him as questionable with left calf strain. He missed the Lakers game with same injury. No update yet but probably game-time decision
Even if active, probably limited minutes. Can't risk making it worse in semi

 

[sk8er]

thunder ml parlay with knicks ml at +180 looking spicy

 

[Radius]

Looking Thunder's ATS performance and there's an interesting pattern. They're 15-2 ATS as favourites of 7+ points this season. When they're heavily favored they don't just win, they destroy.

Spurs are 4-6 ATS as underdogs of 7+. They play hard but get run off the floor against elit teams.

The matchup data supports Thunder here:

• OKC allowing 104.3 ppg (2nd in NBA) vs SAS scoring 113.2 ppg (12th)
• OKC scoring 122.8 ppg (3rd) vs SAS allowing 112.8 ppg (22nd)
• OKC +18.5 net rating vs SAS +0.4 net rating

Also worth noting Thunder are 8-1 in their last 9 playoff/tournament games dating back to last year's Cup run. They know how to perform in Vegas. Only concern is overconfidence after that Suns blowout, but I don't see it with this group. SGA and coaching staff too professional.

Like thunder -10.5 and honestly wouldn't be surprisd by 20+ margin

 

[memehunter]

castle gonna regress hard, guarantee it. 30 points was his career high by like 15. not sustainable

 

[goldkingcoiner]

castle gonna regress hard, guarantee it. 30 points was his career high by like 15. not sustainable

this is the only smart take here - castle averaged 14.2 ppg before lakers game. one good game against lebron's corpse and everyone thinks he's the next kawhi. regression to mean is real, he scores 11 tonight and spurs lose by 18

 

[flipflop]

might throw small bet on spurs ML at +350 just for chaos. if castle has another big game and wemby plays even limited minutes, stranger things have happened

 

[Timmy98]

might throw small bet on spurs ML at +350 just for chaos. if castle has another big game and wemby plays even limited minutes, stranger things have happened

thats what i thought about lakers ML lol - one game doesnt make castle prime michael jordan. thunder too good

 

[CryptoDada]

Looking at the East matchup more closely since everyone's focused on Thunder/Spurs:

Magic's Case:
- Won East Group B (4-0 in group play)
- Defensive rating 108.2 (7th in NBA)
- Paolo Banchero averaging 24.8/7.2/5.2 on 46% shooting
- Franz Wagner 22.1 ppg on 48% shooting
- Beat teams like Sixers, Nets, Celtics in group stage

Knicks' Case:
- Won East Group C (3-1 in group play)
- Offensive rating 118.4 (5th in NBA)
- Jalen Brunson 26.3 ppg, running the offense
- Better home/neutral court record
- More playoff experience

The line at Knicks -4.5 feels right. Magic can definitely keep this close or win outright. Their defense travels and they have two legitimate star-level scorers. I actually like Magic +4.5 more than any bet in the Thunder game. This feels like it goes down to final possession.

 

[Major]

100% @CryptoDada Magic's defense is suffocating and both Paolo and Franz can take over games. Knicks are good but this isn't a mismatch like Thunder/Spurs. Also magic are 9-4 ATS this season. They cover spreads consistently
Taking Magic +4.5 for 2u

 

[RiskyTrader]

locked in final card:
Thunder -10.5 (5u) @ -108 DK ✓
Thunder TT over 118.5 (2u) @ -110 FD
Magic +4.5 (1u) @ -110 Bet365

feel best about thunder spread, that suns game wasnt a fluke they been dominant all year

 

[btcinfo891]

public hammering knicks, sharp money might be on magic. classic fade the public spot

 

[justdoit]

tailing thunder -10.5 from earlier. okc too good rn

 

[Patronus]

cant wait for finals tuesday if thunder and knicks both win - that would be insane matchup

 

[XavierLA]

Thunder/Knicks would be incredible. Two teams playing their best ball all season
Magic are dangerous though. Wouldn't shock me if they pull upset in East semi